Infectious Diseases

Identification of long-existing areas of tuberculosis infection in a metropolis using mathematical methods

Objective. To develop a method for identifying residential areas with increased incidence of tuberculosis and to evaluate their epidemiological significance.
Patients and methods. We analyzed coordinates of residence of 19,033 patients with smear/culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) revealed among the permanent population of Moscow in 2000–2015. Using the method of local density estimation, we identified local areas of increased TB incidence. We also analyzed the statistical significance of these areas and correlation between their formation and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing there.
Results. We have identified 18 areas, where TB incidence was 2.5 times higher than that in other areas. The typical radius of these area was 200 m. Approximately 1.5% of the population resides in each of these areas, whereas the proportion from the total number of TB cases reach 3.5% per each area. Using statistical modeling, we demonstrated that the difference in the TB incidence between the areas was statistically significant. Municipal districts with increased TB incidence were characterized by a lower proportion of residents with higher education and lower housing costs than those with fewer TB patients. The TB incidence in these areas has been decreasing since 2005.
Conclusion. Our method allowed the detection of local areas with an increased TB incidence. These areas had clear borders and limited size, which enables effective preventive measures.
Key words: tuberculosis, areas of infection, socioeconomic factors, geographic information system, mathematical modeling. 
For citation: Romanyukha A.A., Karkach A.S., Borisov S.E., Belilovskiy E.M., Sannikova T.E. Identification of long-existing areas of tuberculosis infection in a metropolis using mathematical methods. Infekc. bolezni (Infectious diseases). 2019; 17(2): 67–73 (In Russian).

DOI: 10.20953/1729-9225-2019-2-67-73